The market will exceed one trillion by 2025. Smart logistics will transform the new ecology of industrial development

At present, the growth rate of my country's logistics industry is slowing down. Traditional industrial development methods cannot meet the requirements of rapid growth in consumer demand. The existing resource conditions are insufficient to support the sustained and rapid growth of the industrial scale. At the 2017 Global Smart Logistics Summit held a few days ago, He Liming, president of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, pointed out that with the adjustment of my country’s industrial structure and the transformation of development methods, the logistics industry’s basic and strategic position in the national economy has become increasingly apparent. With new vigor and vitality, the logistics industry is in an important period of strategic opportunity. Smart logistics comprehensively promotes the upgrade of the supply chain through connection upgrades, data upgrades, model upgrades, experience upgrades, smart upgrades, and green upgrades, which will profoundly affect social production and circulation methods, promote industrial structure adjustment and kinetic energy conversion, and promote supply-side structure. Reform has brought new opportunities for the development of the logistics industry.

Logistics ability determines comprehensive strength

Over the past 30 years, globalization has been dominated by developed countries. By controlling resources such as canals and ports, developed countries have realized an international pattern of buying, selling, and delivering the world. However, as the world economic structure changes, developing countries have become more and more important to speak. For example, China's "One Belt One Road" strategy is simply a transformation of the world's logistics system. The “Belt and Road Initiative” not only demonstrates China's growing national power, but also shortens the circulation time of commodities between China and European countries, and greatly improves the efficiency of logistics, people flow, capital flow, and information flow.

Of course, the entire logistics system needs to be reengineered, not only to test the strength of a country, but also to constantly overcome in the fields of technological innovation, high-end equipment manufacturing, the Internet, and big data. So to some extent, a country’s logistics capabilities determine the country’s development potential and international competitiveness.

However, the main problems facing China's logistics development are as follows: First, logistics costs are high and efficiency is low. At present, the ratio of total logistics cost to GDP in my country is about 15%, which is much higher than 8% in developed countries. At the same time, compared with developing countries such as Brazil and India, the total logistics cost in my country also shows a high proportion of GDP.

Second, the fragmentation is serious, and the system and mechanism barriers have not been broken. Compared with the developed third-party logistics in advanced countries, Chinese enterprises are more self-operated logistics. Therefore, from this perspective, it is difficult for the domestic logistics industry to form a scale effect, and there is a relatively obvious problem of fragmentation.

Third, the development of infrastructure is lagging behind. Without standardized and unified logistics standards, facilities such as modern warehousing and multimodal transportation are still insufficient.

Fourth, the establishment of laws and regulations is not yet perfect. In some places, problems such as arbitrary charges and arbitrary fines for logistics enterprises have more or less affected the normal operation of enterprises. In addition, most of the employees in the logistics industry at this stage are from the "second generation of farmers", so the overall quality needs to be further improved.

The smart logistics market will exceed one trillion yuan in 2025

He Liming pointed out that at present, my country has become the world's largest logistics market, consumer logistics demand growth has become a bright spot, social logistics efficiency has entered a period of rapid improvement, a group of leading logistics companies lead the development of the industry, logistics infrastructure has strengthened interconnection, and smart logistics has become a transformation. Upgrade new kinetic energy. The total cost of social logistics in my country has exceeded 11 trillion yuan, which has surpassed the United States and has become the world's largest logistics market. Traditional logistics enterprises in my country conform to the development trend of the times and actively embrace the Internet. The demand for smart logistics mainly includes four major areas: logistics big data, logistics cloud, logistics mode and logistics technology. In 2016, the market size of the four major areas of logistics big data, logistics cloud, logistics model and logistics technology exceeded 200 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2025, the smart logistics market will exceed one trillion yuan.

He Liming believes that smart logistics is an important starting point for the supply-side structural reform of the logistics industry. Through interconnection and collaborative sharing, the use value of existing resources is released, the investment benefits of incremental resources are stimulated, and the industrial division of labor and resource allocation systems are reshaped. It has opened up a new path to improve the quality and efficiency of the industry. The first is the integrator of social resources, the second is the concentration of decentralized markets, the third is a substitute for the shortage of labor, the fourth is the satisfaction of individual needs, and the fifth is the creator of green ecology. However, in the face of a new round of technological revolution, the speed of conceptual change and strategic transformation of traditional logistics enterprises is slightly insufficient. How to promote logistics companies to embrace the Internet, join the construction of a smart logistics ecosystem, and form a new industrial ecology of "collaboration and sharing" is an arduous challenge facing the next development of smart logistics. Among them, the main reasons are insufficient investment in logistics infrastructure, logistics standardization as a constraint, the regulatory system does not adapt to changes, the failure of the social security system, the integrity system has yet to be established, and the corporate concept urgently needs to be changed.

Will transform the way the industry develops

He Liming said that at present, my country's logistics industry is mainly facing supply-side structural contradictions. On the one hand, a large amount of stock resources are deposited in traditional business areas due to ownership restrictions and cannot be withdrawn, and cannot meet the demand for high-end services; on the other hand, incremental resources are constrained by information asymmetry and insufficient investment, making it difficult to create new demand. In addition, the constraints of factors such as labor, land, capital, and the ecological environment are not enough to support the continued rapid expansion of the logistics industry. With the deepening of the integration of the logistics industry and the Internet, smart logistics has some new characteristics: the policy environment continues to improve, the logistics Internet is gradually taking shape, logistics big data is applied, logistics cloud services are strengthened, collaborative sharing promotes model innovation, and artificial intelligence is taking off .

He Liming emphasized that my country is in a critical period of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Smart logistics is based on logistics Internet and logistics big data, through collaborative sharing of innovation models and advanced artificial intelligence technology, reshaping the division of labor and reinventing the industry. Structure, transform the new ecology of industrial development mode. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the country implemented the "Internet +" strategy, and my country's smart logistics ushered in a period of development opportunities, and the accelerated transformation and upgrading of smart logistics has become an inevitable trend. One is the connection upgrade, the second is the data upgrade, the third is the model upgrade, the fourth is the experience upgrade, the fifth is the smart upgrade, the sixth is the green upgrade, and the seventh is the supply chain upgrade.

The logistics industry has great potential for development

As a programmatic document of the logistics industry, the "Medium and Long-term Plan for the Development of the Logistics Industry (2014~2020)" issued by the State Council has played a guiding role in the development of my country's logistics industry.

First of all, according to the content of the plan, by 2020, a modern logistics service system with reasonable layout, advanced technology, convenient and efficient, environmentally friendly, safe and orderly will be basically established. Among them, the specific targets are as follows: the average annual growth of the logistics industry's added value is about 8%, the logistics industry's added value accounts for about 7.5% of GDP, the proportion of third-party logistics has increased significantly, and new logistics equipment and technologies are widely used; The ratio of the total logistics cost to the GDP of the whole society has dropped from 18% in 2013 to about 16%, and the logistics industry’s ability to support and guarantee the national economy has been further enhanced.

According to the National Logistics Operation Bulletin jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Statistics Bureau, and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, since 2006, the total cost of social logistics in my country has increased year by year. At the same time, the total cost of social logistics as a proportion of GDP dropped from 18.3% in 2006 to 16% in 2015. In 2016, the total cost of social logistics as a proportion of GDP further dropped to 14.9%.

The gradual decline of the total cost of social logistics as a proportion of GDP means that the efficiency of logistics is gradually improving, which has a very good role in promoting the economic vitality of the entire society. At the same time, according to the "Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of the Logistics Industry (2014~2020)", by 2020, the total logistics cost of the whole society is expected to stabilize below 16% of GDP, plus the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" outline. my country’s total social logistics cost will reach 15.3 trillion yuan in 2020, which is an increase of about 37.8% compared with the current value of 11.1 trillion yuan.